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January 2018

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Water PPPs that work: The case of Armenia

Dambudzo Muzenda's picture


Photo: VahanN / Shutterstock.com 

Downtown Yerevan. Gusty winds, frosty air. Inside a hotel in the town square, cocktails and canapés, speeches and signatures. On this evening in November 2016, representatives of the State Committee for Water Economy (the Armenian water authority) and Veolia (a large international water operator) gathered to celebrate the signing of a new partnership: a 15-year national lease to provide water and wastewater services for the whole country. The lease began in January 2017, thus marking the start of a “second generation” of water PPPs in Armenia. Solid gains had already been made under the “first generation” between 2000 and 2016. At this crucial juncture, a World Bank study reviewed Armenia’s experience so far and analyzed the way forward under the new national lease.

Over 1.25 Million People are Killed on the Road Each Year

David Mariano's picture

Over 1.25 million people are killed each year on the road. And 20-50 million others are seriously impacted by road traffic injuries. While most regions have seen a decrease in road-traffic related death rates, Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa still see over 20 deaths per 100,000 people every year.

A new report produced by the World Bank and funded by Bloomberg Philantrophies estimates the social and economic benefits of reducing road traffic injuries in low- and middle-income countries​.

#5 from 2017: The role of social media in development

Rosie Parkyn's picture
Our Top Ten blog posts by readership in 2017. This post was originally posted on May 1, 2017.
 
Why should development organisations care about social media? Rosie Parkyn looks at social media’s potential to enhance development outcomes in the Global South and how this stacks up against the evidence.  
 
At BBC Media Action, we take our content to people wherever they are, be that a refugee reception centre in Lebanona homestead in rural Ethiopia or their Facebook feed. Our work as a media organisation makes the biggest difference when we succeed in getting people talking, whether face-to-face or across virtual networks. Social media enables such discussion, broadening it beyond geographically defined communities and existing editorial agendas, and at a scale hitherto unimaginable.
 
As a development organisation that predominantly produces mass media outputs, social platforms allow us to see how people respond to our content and debate the issues we raise in our programmes. We can observe and interact with audiences in a way that isn’t possible with legacy media like newspapers and TV.
 
It’s true that many of our most important audiences in the Global South are yet to gain access to social media. Nonetheless, its role and influence within the information ecosystems we work in will only grow and its ability to support positive development outcomes demands exploration.
 

Equality Means Business: Making the Business Case for Women

Charity R. Hodzi-Sibanda's picture
Despite women’s active role in Zimbabwe’s informal sector, they are underrepresented in its formal business sector. Credit: Arne Hoel/ World Bank


When early December was upon us—heralding the start of the month of annual festivities—a group of women executives met to put forward strategies for equality in business. They met against a background of the harsh reality of women’s exclusion from leadership positions in Zimbabwe, brought to the fore in a recently released Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) Manufacturing Survey for 2017.

The survey, which derived some of its data from the 2016 World Bank Enterprise survey as well as from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, revealed that—in a country struggling with unemployment—the labor force in the manufacturing sector is composed of only 20 percent women on average, and 80 percent of men.

Data science competition: predicting poverty is hard - can you do it better?

Tariq Khokhar's picture
 

If you want to reduce poverty, you have to be able to identify the poor. But measuring poverty is difficult and expensive, as it requires the collection of detailed data on household consumption or income. We just launched a competition together with data science platform Driven Data, to help us see how well we can predict a household’s poverty status based on easy-to-collect information and using machine learning algorithms.

The competition supplies a set of training data with anonymized qualitative variables from household surveys in 3 countries, including the “poor” or “not poor” classification for each observation.

The challenge is to build models which can accurately classify households from a different set of test data (with the poor/not poor classification removed!) for the same 3 countries, and then submit them for scoring. Performance is measured by the mean log loss for the 3 countries which tells us how accurate the classification models developed are.

Prizes are $6,000; $4,000; and $2,500 for the top 3 performing entries, plus a $2,500 bonus prize for the top-performing entry from a low- or lower-middle income country. The deadline for entries is February 28th 2018.

You can read the full problem description and enter the competition here, and see the Driven Data team’s “benchmark solution” based on a random forest classifier.

Good luck - we look forward to seeing your solutions!

Has job creation been accompanied by job quality in Turkey?

Ximena Del Carpio's picture


It is often said that job creation in growing economies sacrifices quality for quantity. Skeptics argue that job growth occurs in low-wage occupations and low-productivity sectors, are temporary in nature, and offer precarious conditions.

Such criticism was made in Turkey after the global crisis, when the country experienced rapid job creation and decreasing unemployment - from 12.58% at the peak of the crisis to 8.17% in 2012. 

As unemployment began to rise, the Turkish government put forward a comprehensive plan of incentives to catalyze job creation. But, while more jobs are being created in the formal economy today, a common perception persists that these are mostly poor-quality jobs. But is this perception accurate?
 

Statistical Power and the Funnel of Attribution

David McKenzie's picture

Often there are many steps or stages between the starting point of some intervention and its ultimate goal, and at each step, people can drop out. The result can be extremely low power to measure impacts on this end outcome, even though we might be able to detect impacts on the intermediate steps. This post illustrates this point, with the goal of making clear the importance of trying to measure intermediate outcomes, and concludes with suggestions of ways to partially overcome this problem.


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