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The World Region

Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth, in six charts

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Despite an acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth (the growth that can be sustained at full employment and capacity) has slowed. The slowdown reflected weak investment growth, slowing productivity growth, and demographic trends. These forces will continue, and, unless countered, will depress global potential growth further over the next ten years. 

Global Potential Growth Is Below its Long-term Average. Global potential growth slowed in 2013-17 below its longer-term average, whether globally, among advanced economies (AEs) or among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Sources: World Bank estimates; Haver Analytics; Penn World Tables; World Development Indicators, World Bank. 
Notes: A.  Based on production function approach, GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.
 
Growth

Over 1.25 Million People are Killed on the Road Each Year

David Mariano's picture

Over 1.25 million people are killed each year on the road. And 20-50 million others are seriously impacted by road traffic injuries. While most regions have seen a decrease in road-traffic related death rates, Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa still see over 20 deaths per 100,000 people every year.

A new report produced by the World Bank and funded by Bloomberg Philantrophies estimates the social and economic benefits of reducing road traffic injuries in low- and middle-income countries​.

Data science competition: predicting poverty is hard - can you do it better?

Tariq Khokhar's picture
 

If you want to reduce poverty, you have to be able to identify the poor. But measuring poverty is difficult and expensive, as it requires the collection of detailed data on household consumption or income. We just launched a competition together with data science platform Driven Data, to help us see how well we can predict a household’s poverty status based on easy-to-collect information and using machine learning algorithms.

The competition supplies a set of training data with anonymized qualitative variables from household surveys in 3 countries, including the “poor” or “not poor” classification for each observation.

The challenge is to build models which can accurately classify households from a different set of test data (with the poor/not poor classification removed!) for the same 3 countries, and then submit them for scoring. Performance is measured by the mean log loss for the 3 countries which tells us how accurate the classification models developed are.

Prizes are $6,000; $4,000; and $2,500 for the top 3 performing entries, plus a $2,500 bonus prize for the top-performing entry from a low- or lower-middle income country. The deadline for entries is February 28th 2018.

You can read the full problem description and enter the competition here, and see the Driven Data team’s “benchmark solution” based on a random forest classifier.

Good luck - we look forward to seeing your solutions!

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
 
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.

 

How does anthropology help us understand bureaucracy?

Daniel Rogger's picture

Editor's note: This blog post is part of a series for the 'Bureaucracy Lab', a World Bank initiative to better understand the world's public officials.

A session of parliament
Photo: © Gennadiy Ratushenko / World Bank

Bureaucratic structures are complex. A given country’s norms and values can be difficult to comprehend for outsiders trying to engage in governance reform there. How can anthropologists help us understand the dynamics of a bureaucracy or government organization?
 
In rural Tanzania, more than seven million citizens lack reliable access to clean water. At any given time, 46 percent of rural water points need repair. An all too easy way to rationalize government shortcomings would be to label officials as lazy or corrupt. However, this statement oversimplifies the issue at hand and fails to dive deeper into the underlying bureaucratic structures that hinder successful service delivery.

Bangladesh is thinking big by thinking blue

Pawan Patil's picture

Maintaining and restoring ocean ecosystems – or ‘ocean health’ – is synonymous with growing ‘ocean wealth,’ according to a soon-to-be published report by the World Bank and European Union. With rapid population growth, limited land and fewer terrestrial resources to house, feed and provide citizens with their energy needs, coastal nations across South Asia are looking seaward. In doing so, countries are clueing in on the fact that sustainably managing and developing ocean spaces is critical to a nation’s economic advancement.

Thinking Blue - thinking how best to sustainably tap ocean spaces as new sources of sustainable growth and transition to a blue economy - is new, although South Asian nations have used the sea for food and trade for centuries. Five years ago, few had an inkling of the emerging importance of the term 'blue economy.'

By late 2017, at the Second International Blue Economy Dialogue hosted by the Government of Bangladesh in Dhaka, interest in what the blue economy is and why it matters is at an all-time high and rising. Perhaps this not surprising. 

Going Deeper into TCdata360 Data Availability Leaders and Laggers

Reg Onglao's picture

Note: This is the second blog of a series of blog posts on data availability within the context of TCdata360, wherein each post will focus on a different aspect of data availability. The first blog post can be viewed here.

With open data comes missing data. In this blog series, we hope to explore data availability by looking at it from various perspectives within the context of the TCdata360 platform[1]: by country, dataset, topic, and indicator.

In our previous blog post, we took a look at the country-level data availability over time through an interactive motion bubble plot inspired by the famous Gapminder visualization. In this follow-up post, we’ll still look at data availability from a geographical lens – but now looking into country classifications and other details that aren’t evident in a bubble plot, as well as the data availability leaders and laggers over time.

Overall Data Availability Leaders and Laggers

First, let’s focus on comparing individual countries to get a better sense of country-level differences in data availability. We computed for each country’s overall data availability by taking the median data availability across all years (1955-2016). Looking at the top 20 and bottom 20 countries in terms of overall data availability generates a few interesting patterns.

Building benchmarks for infrastructure investors: a long but worthwhile journey

Sarah Tame's picture


Photo: User 377053 | Pixabay

The Argentinian presidency of the G20 opens this month and will be marked by a focus on infrastructure investment. The G20 and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have already announced a widescale data collection initiative to create benchmarks to monitor the risk-adjusted financial performance of private infrastructure debt and equity investments.

It’s about time.

Investors have hit a roadblock when investing in infrastructure. Until now, none of the metrics needed by investors were documented in a robust manner, if at all, for privately held infrastructure equity or debt. This has left investors frustrated and wary. In a 2016 survey of major asset owners by the EDHEC Infrastructure Institute (EDHECinfra) and the Global Infrastructure Hub, more than half declared they did not trust the valuations reported by infrastructure asset managers. How, under such conditions, can the vast increases in long-term investment in infrastructure by institutional players envisaged by the G20 take place?

Twelve big moments of building sustainable cities and communities

Andy Shuai Liu's picture

[Put together the puzzle pieces to reveal the picture. Scroll down to #9 for hints.]
 

If the world in 2017 were a jigsaw puzzle, what memorable pieces would you choose to make up the big picture?
 
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria that pounded coastal United States and the Caribbean; the severe drought that struck Somalia; forest fires that are ravaging through southern California… Hard to miss were the natural disasters that displaced – even killed – individuals and families.
 
There were also the “manmade” disasters – conflicts that erupted or lasted in many parts of the world continued to force men, women, and children out of their homes and homelands.
 
Yet, turning to the bright side, the world has come a long way this year in addressing these challenges to boost inclusive and sustainable growth.


Just a couple of weeks ago, for example, global and local leaders gathered at the One Planet Summit in Paris to firm up their commitment – and ramp up action – to maximize climate finance for a low-carbon, disaster-resilient future.
 
At the World Bank, our teams working on social development, urban development, disaster risk management, and land issues have endeavored with countries and cities worldwide throughout the year to achieve a common goal: building inclusive, resilient, and sustainable cities and communities for all.
 
How did they do? From our “Sustainable Communities” newsletter, we have captured 12 moments that mark the major accomplishments and lessons learned in 2017—and inspire our continued work to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity in 2018:
 
#1: Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World


 
Released in February 2017, our report on cities in Africa notes that, to grow economically as they are growing in size, Africa’s cities must open their doors and connect to the world. Improving conditions for people and businesses in African cities is the key to accelerating economic growth, adding jobs, and improving city competitiveness. Two more reports released in 2017 also shined a light on inclusive urban growth in East Asia and the Pacific and in Europe and Central Asia respectively.


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