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Africa Hydromet Forum: Improving climate and weather forecasting to build disaster resilience

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture

Photo: JC McIlwaine / UN Photo

There is no doubt that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity. In Africa alone, 90% of all disasters in recent decades have been driven by weather and climate. While we cannot stop them from striking, we can tell people about them, managing the risk that they present – by advancing our work in hydromet.

Hydromet is the union of hydrology and meteorology, combining water, weather, and climate studies as a formidable force in a government’s ability to accurately understand, forecast, and communicate storms and hazards. This means that something as simple as an accurate weather forecast, or the monitoring of river levels could make the difference between a farmer losing his/her entire crop or a fisherman knowing when best to head out to sea.  

Because of the lack of high-quality hydromet services, countries suffer GDP losses every year from flooding, cyclones, and other storms. Madagascar and Nigeria, for example, each lost more than 1 percent of GDP in a single year from storms.

However, instead of looking at potential future damages, we must look at how hydromet services can help cities and communities flourish with greater resilience today:

Fresh thinking on economic cooperation in South Asia

Nikita Singla's picture
 Aamir Khan/ Pakistan, Sreerupa Sengupta/ India, Sanjay Kathuria/ World Bank, Mahfuz Kabir & Surendar Singh/ Bangladesh) Photo By: Marcio De La Cruz/ World Bank
Young Economists sharing the stage with Sanjay Kathuria, Lead Economist and Coordinator, Regional Integration (Left to Right: Aamir Khan/ Pakistan, Sreerupa Sengupta/ India, Sanjay Kathuria/ World Bank, Mahfuz Kabir/Bangladesh & Surendar Singh/ India). Photo by: Marcio De La Cruz/ World Bank


That regional cooperation in South Asia is lower than optimal levels is well accepted. It is usually ascribed to – the asymmetry in size between India and the rest, conflicts and historical political tensions, a trust deficit, limited transport connectivity, and onerous logistics, among many other factors.

Deepening regional integration requires sufficient policy-relevant analytical work on the costs and benefits of both intra-regional trade and investment. An effective cross-border network of young professionals can contribute to fresh thinking on emerging economic cooperation issues in South Asia.

Against this background, the World Bank Group sponsored a competitive request for proposals.  Awardees from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, after being actively mentored by seasoned World Bank staff over a period of two years, convened in Washington DC to present their new and exciting research. Research areas included regional value chains, production sharing and the impact assessment of alternative preferential trade agreements in the region.

Young Economists offer fresh thoughts on economic cooperation in South Asia

Mahfuz Kabir, Acting Research Director, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies and Surendar Singh, Policy Analyst, Consumer Unity Trust Society (CUTS International) presented their research: Of Streams and Tides, India-Bangladesh Value Chains in Textiles and Clothing (T&C). They focus on how to tackle three main trade barriers for T&C: a) high tariffs for selected, but important goods for the industries of both countries; b) inefficient customs procedures and c) divergent criteria for rules of origin classification.

Sreerupa Sengupta, Ph.D. Scholar at Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi discussed Trade Cooperation and Production Sharing in South Asia – An Indian Perspective. Reviewing the pattern of Indian exports and imports in the last twenty years, her research focuses on comparing the Global Value Chain (GVC) participation rate of India with East Asian and ASEAN economies. Barriers to higher participation include a) lack of openness in the FDI sector; b) lack of adequate port infrastructure, and long port dwell times; and c) lack of Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs).

Aamir Khan, Assistant Professor, Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad presented his work on Economy Wide Impact of Regional Integration in South Asia - Options for Pakistan. His research analyzes the reasons for Pakistan not being able to take full advantage of its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China, and finds that the granting of ASEAN-type concessions to Pakistan in its FTA with China would be more beneficial than the current FTA arrangement. The work also draws lessons for FTAs that are currently being negotiated by South Asian countries.

Ecological restoration, critical for poverty reduction

Joaquim Levy's picture
© Mauricio Rios
© Mauricio Rios/World Bank

Why is ecological restoration so critical to the World Bank’s mission of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity? Quite simply, because environmental degradation is devastating to the most vulnerable communities and perpetuates poverty around the world.

Some 42 percent of the world’s poorest live on land that is classified as degraded. The situation becomes worse every year, as 24 billion tons of fertile soil are eroded, and drought threatens to turn 12 million hectares of land into desert.

Cat DDOs: More than emergency lending for disaster relief

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture
Disasters can strike anywhere and anytime. As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events, for example, are on the rise around the world, and countries are increasingly seeking to improve both their physical and financial resilience to all kind of disasters. An important dimension of sustainability in urban and rural areas is resilience–resilience for the natural disasters of today and those of tomorrow.   

One way to better prepare for disasters is securing access to financial resources before a disaster strikes through financial instruments such as the Cat DDO. 

Cat DDO stands for “Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option.” It is an innovative contingent line of credit that can provide immediate liquidity to countries in the aftermath of a disaster resulting from an adverse natural event. The World Bank has made it available to countries since 2008, to make it possible for them to have quick access to financial resources upon the declaration of state of emergency in the aftermath of a disaster, following an adverse natural event and in accordance with local legislation. The funds that provide liquidity to the countries are preapproved based on a sound disaster risk management program and an adequate macroeconomic framework. 

[Read: Disasters, funds, and policy: Creatively meeting urgent needs and long-term policy goals]

Why are Cat DDOs an important disaster risk financing instrument for countries?
  • It serves as an early financing tool while funds from other sources such as government reallocations, bilateral aid, or reconstruction loans/credits become available.
  • It allows the countries to address the emergency without distracting resources from their social and development programs.
  • It enhances the countries’ financial capacity to prepare for disasters.
  • It also generates or consolidates a dialogue on disaster risk management between the countries and the World Bank to learn from experience and apply good practices.

What are some of the examples of “Cat DDOs in action”? How will this innovative tool evolve to better manage increasing disaster risks? Watch a video with World Bank Senior Director Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (@Ede_WBG) and Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist Armando Guzman to learn more. 


 

Practicing what you preach: Mozambique’s natural resource management

André Rodrigues de Aquino's picture
The World Bank is supporting an increase in rural jobs and investment while promoting sustainable land management to conserve Mozambique’s natural wealth. Photo: Andrea Borgarello/World Bank

As my plane lands in Maputo, I am welcomed home by blankets of turquoise waters edged in creamy ribbons of sand, and swaths of greens in every shade, from scrubby mangroves to unique coastal forests endemic to Maputaland. But I also see rapidly sprawling human settlements and degraded areas where forests once flourished.

Mighty Mangroves of the Philippines: Valuing Wetland Benefits for Risk Reduction & Conservation

Michael Beck's picture
Mangroves are weeds; if you give them half a chance they grow in some of the most inhospitable environments; with their knees in seawater and their trunks in the air. They create forested barriers between the wrath of the seas and our coastal communities providing benefits in coastal defense and fisheries. Unfortunately there are too many examples where we have not given mangroves half a chance; hundreds of thousands of hectares have been lost to pollution, aquaculture and other developments. These represent real losses to the coastal communities – often some of the most vulnerable communities living in the highest risk areas.
 
A recent study estimates that without mangroves, flooding and damages to people, property and infrastructure in the Philippines would increase annually by approximately 25%.

What do "Sustainable Cities" look like to you? Enter our global photo contest by October 6 (deadline extended to October 15)

Dini Djalal's picture
Also available in: Español | Français | العربية | 中文
Enter our global photo contest by October 15

Building healthy and well-functioning cities and communities that continue to thrive for generations is the goal of the Global Platform for Sustainable Cities (GPSC), a collaboration that unites cities across continents in their endeavors towards achieving sustainable, resilient development.
 
What would these cities and communities look like to you? The GPSC, its partner cities, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) invite you to articulate sustainability through the medium of photography.


Whether it be elements of your city that represent sustainability, or a moment in time that captures the spirit of inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban development, we invite you to share your vision with us, through your photographs.
 
The winners of the photo competition will each win exciting prizes: a $500 voucher for purchasing photography equipment, as well as a chance to be recognized at an award ceremony and have their photographs featured in the World Bank / GPSC’s online and print materials.
 
Here’s how the Sustainable Cities Photo Contest will work:

Forest-smart strategies are taking off

Werner Kornexl's picture
© Flore de Préneuf/World Bank
© Flore de Préneuf/World Bank

The more we know about our rapidly changing environment, climate, and demographics, the more we learn about how critical forests are for our resilience, overall wellbeing, livelihoods, and economies. Unfortunately, in a world of budgetary constraints and competing interests, governments face increasingly complex decisions when it comes to supporting different sector priorities. The solution is to move away from the traditional approach of sectors operating in isolation or in competition with one another, and more towards an integrated win-win approach. But how?

In the Pacific, climate change means trying to expect the unexpected

Chris Bennett's picture

I was reflecting on the saying that “ignorance is bliss” as our plane was landing in Tuvalu, a small island nation in the South Pacific. We had been advised that portions of the recent runway resealing was failing in a number of locations, but it was the video below—showing the runway ‘floating’ under the weight of someone walking on it—that was particularly disconcerting.  Runways are supposed to be solid!

Tuvalu has regularly been called the ‘canary in the coal mine’ when it comes to climate change. The country is comprised of three reef islands and six coral atolls.  With the maximum elevation of 3-4 m, and sea level rise of some 5 mm/year, it is already at a risk of a range of climate change challenges. Now we have a new one: runway failure from beneath caused by what appears to be a combination of very high (‘king’) tides and increased rainfall.

When in the eye of a storm….

Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough's picture
Abandoned fishing boats lay on the banks of the dried Siyambalankkatuwa reservoir in Sri Lanka's Puttalam District, Aug. 10, 2017. Thomson Reuters Foundation/Amantha Perera
Abandoned fishing boats lay on the banks of the dried Siyambalankkatuwa reservoir in Sri Lanka's Puttalam District, Aug. 10, 2017. Thomson Reuters Foundation/Amantha Perera
This year, yet again, flooding caused by heavy monsoon rains came and receded. Meanwhile, this year alone, more than one million people have been hard hit by the worst drought in 40 years.
 
The media, with few exceptions, have moved on to other topics and a sense of calm pervades. 
 
We are in the eye of the storm -- that misleading lull before mother nature unleashes her fury once again. 
 
In Sri Lanka alone, costs from natural disasters, losses from damage to housing, infrastructure, agriculture, and from relief are estimated at LKR 50 billion (approx. USD 327 million).  The highest annual expected losses are from floods (LKR 32 billion), cyclones or high winds (LKR 11 billion), droughts (LKR 5.2 billion) and landslides (LKR 1.8 billion). This is equivalent to 0.4 percent of GDP or 2.1 percent of government expenditure. (#SLDU2017). Floods and landslides in May 2016 caused damages amounting to US$572 million.   
 
These numbers do not paint the full picture of impact for those most affected, who lost loved ones, irreplaceable belongings, or livestock and more so for those who are back to square one on the socio-economic ladder.
 
Even more alarming, these numbers are likely to rise as droughts and floods triggered by climate change will become more frequent and severe. And the brief respite in between will only get shorter, leaving less time to prepare for the hard days to come.
 
Therefore, better planning is even more necessary. Sri Lanka, like many other countries has started to invest in data that highlights areas at risk, and early warning systems to ensure that people move to safer locations with speed and effect.
 
Experience demonstrates that the eye of the storm is the time to look to the future, ready up citizens and institutions in case of extreme weather.
 
Now is the time to double down on preparing national plans to respond to disasters and build resilience. 

It’s the time to test our systems and get all citizens familiar with emergency drills. But, more importantly, we need to build back better and stronger.  In drought-affected areas, we can’t wait for the rains and revert to the same old farming practices. It’s time to innovate and stock up on critical supplies and be prepared when a disaster hits.
 
It’s the time to plan for better shelters that are safe and where people can store their hard-earned possessions.
 
Mobilizing and empowering communities is essential. But to do this, we must know who is vulnerable – and whether they should stay or move.  Saving lives is first priority, no doubt. Second, we should also have the necessary systems and equipment to respond with speed and effect in times of disasters. Third, a plan must be in place to help affected families without much delay.
 
Fortunately, many ongoing initiatives aim to do just that.


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