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Global Economy

Building solid foundations: How to promote potential growth, in six charts

Franziska Ohnsorge's picture

Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Despite an acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth (the growth that can be sustained at full employment and capacity) has slowed. The slowdown reflected weak investment growth, slowing productivity growth, and demographic trends. These forces will continue, and, unless countered, will depress global potential growth further over the next ten years. 

Global Potential Growth Is Below its Long-term Average. Global potential growth slowed in 2013-17 below its longer-term average, whether globally, among advanced economies (AEs) or among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
Sources: World Bank estimates; Haver Analytics; Penn World Tables; World Development Indicators, World Bank. 
Notes: A.  Based on production function approach, GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 30 advanced economies and 50 EMDEs. 

Why 2018 global growth will be strong, and why there is still cause for concern, in 10 charts

Carlos Arteta's picture
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Download the January 2018 Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth accelerated to 3 percent in 2017, supported by a broad-based cyclical recovery encompassing more than half of the world’s economies, and is expected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018. Global trade regained significant momentum, supported by an upturn in investment.

As headwinds ease for commodity exporters, growth across emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up. However, risks to the outlook remain titled to the downside, such as the possibility of disorderly financial market adjustment or rising geopolitical tensions.

A major concern in the subdued pace of potential growth across emerging market and developing economies, which is expected to further decline in the next decade. Structural reforms will be essential to stem this decline, and counter the negative effects of any future crisis that could materialize.

The broad-based recovery should continue

Global growth accelerated markedly in 2017, supported by a broad-based recovery across advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), and it is expected to edge up in 2018.

2017 in Review: Look at the posts you engaged with the most on social media

Zubedah Robinson's picture

2018 is here, and we hope your new year is off to a positive start! Thank you for being a part of the global movement to help end poverty. For every like, share, “heart”, retweet, you name it, thanks for engaging with our content!

Every year brings new highlights, challenges, and priorities, and 2017 was no different. Here is a look at some of the content you engaged with the most on social media in the past year:


No one should be driven into bankruptcy simply because they have to pay for healthcare for themselves or their loved ones. So unsurprisingly, you showed strong  support for #HealthforAll during the Universal Health Coverage Forum in December.

We were also very impressed to see how strongly you feel about preserving our planet. During last month’s One Planet Summit, several of you replied to the news of the World Bank’s announcement on phasing out financing of oil and gas exploration, with positivity. For example @RalienBekkers said: “Great, everyone should follow”:
Do you believe that no country can attain its full potential without the equal participation of both women and men in the country’s economy? Many of you agreed that women shouldn’t be restricted from doing some jobs, just because they are women:

Energy and raw materials prices gained in December, beverages and fertilizer prices fell – Pink Sheet

John Baffes's picture
Energy commodity prices gained 2 percent in December—the sixth consecutive monthly gain—led by a 6 percent increase in coal prices, the World Bank’s Pink Sheet reported.

Agriculture prices declined marginally, as a 5 percent decline in beverages, led by cocoa (down 10 percent) outweighed a 2 percent increase in raw materials prices, led by cotton (up 6 percent) and natural rubber (up 5 percent). Fertilizer prices declined 5 percent, led by a 11 percent drop in urea.

Metals and mineral prices gained less than 1 percent. A large gain in iron ore (up 12 percent) was offset by declines in zinc and nickel. Precious metals prices declined 2 percent, led by a 1 percent decline in gold.

The pink sheet is a monthly report that monitors commodity price movements.
Energy and raw material price indexes increased in December while beverage and fertilizer prices declined sharply.


Bangladesh is thinking big by thinking blue

Pawan Patil's picture

Maintaining and restoring ocean ecosystems – or ‘ocean health’ – is synonymous with growing ‘ocean wealth,’ according to a soon-to-be published report by the World Bank and European Union. With rapid population growth, limited land and fewer terrestrial resources to house, feed and provide citizens with their energy needs, coastal nations across South Asia are looking seaward. In doing so, countries are clueing in on the fact that sustainably managing and developing ocean spaces is critical to a nation’s economic advancement.

Thinking Blue - thinking how best to sustainably tap ocean spaces as new sources of sustainable growth and transition to a blue economy - is new, although South Asian nations have used the sea for food and trade for centuries. Five years ago, few had an inkling of the emerging importance of the term 'blue economy.'

By late 2017, at the Second International Blue Economy Dialogue hosted by the Government of Bangladesh in Dhaka, interest in what the blue economy is and why it matters is at an all-time high and rising. Perhaps this not surprising. 

Three reasons why maritime transport must act on climate change

Nancy Vandycke's picture

For years, the transport sector has been looking at solutions to reduce its carbon footprint. A wide range of stakeholders has taken part in the public debate on transport and climate change, yet one mode has remained largely absent from the conversation: maritime transport.

Tackling emissions from the shipping industry is just as critical as it is for other modes of transport. First, international maritime transport accounts for the lion’s share of global freight transport: ships carry around 80% of the volume of all world trade and 70% of its value. In addition, although shipping is considered the most energy-efficient mode of transport, it still uses huge amounts of so-called bunker fuels, a byproduct of crude oil refining that takes a heavy toll on the environment.

Several key global players are now calling on the maritime sector to challenge the status quo and limit its climate impact. From our perspective, we see at least three major reasons that can explain why emissions from maritime transport are becoming a global priority.

How young people are rethinking the future of work

Esteve Sala's picture
(Photo: Michael Haws / World Bank)

When we talk about the future of work, it is important to include perspectives, ideas and solutions from young people as they are the driving force that can shape the future.  As we saw at the recent Youth Summit 2017, the younger, digitally-savvy generations —whether they are called Millennials, Gen Y, or Gen Z— shared solutions that helped tackle global challenges.  The two-day event welcomed young people to discuss how to leverage technology and innovation for development impact.  In this post, we interviewed —under a job-creation perspective—finalists of the summit's global competition.

Tunisia: Looking ahead or back to the future?

Antonius Verheijen's picture

I had the privilege recently to spend an unscheduled hour of discussion with a group of young Tunisians who were visiting our offices. As often, on these occasions it is hard not to get captured by the energy and impatience of the young people in this region. It gives hope that entrepreneurial spirit is really alive and well in a country where reliable private sector services remain otherwise hard to come by, let alone public ones. If one combines the energy of youth with the message in a recent (equally energetic) speech by the Minister of Development to a large group of investors, one gets a sense that Tunisia is, indeed, looking ahead and not to the past.

Yet, as always, reality is far more complex, and often we are confronted with a much gloomier picture of a country that is perceived as, economically, turning inward. This is the case even more so now, as Tunisia is coming under immense pressure to get its public finances in order. This has generated some decisions that go right against the message of openness and dynamism that one gets when meeting with young Tunisians. It all begs the question, for a newcomer like myself, which of the parallel universes is the real one, and, as in a movie, which one ultimately will prevail.

Political economy drivers of PFM reforms: a systematic look at what we all know somehow

Verena Fritz's picture

Over the past two decades, almost every developing country has adopted some form of public finance management (PFM) reform plan, with many currently pursuing second or third generation plans. Over the same period, development partners have provided substantial support – a total of over $20 billion since 2002. However, some countries have seen strong progress, while others have seen little, or have even experienced backsliding (see Graph 1 a and b).

Tracing the roots of TCdata360 datasets: an interactive network graph

Reg Onglao's picture

When doing data analysis, it's common for indicators to take the spotlight whereas datasets usually take the backseat as an attribution footnote or as a metadata popup.

However, we often forget how intertwined dataset sources are and how this affects data analysis. For instance, we can never assume that indicators from different datasets are mutually exclusive – it's possible for them to be the same indicator or to have an influence on the other as a component weight in an index, if the other dataset were used as a source for the other.

In this blog, we're interested to see if this applies to TCdata360 by taking a deeper look at its "dataset genealogy" and answer questions such as – Is it safe to do cross-dataset analysis using TCdata360 datasets? Are there interesting patterns in the relationships between TCdata360 datasets?

Quick introduction to network graphs

We call a dataset which serves as a data source for another dataset as "source", and a dataset which pulls indicator data from another as "target". Collectively, all of these are called "nodes".

To see the relationships between TCdata360 datasets, we mapped these in a directed network graph wherein each dataset is a node. By directed, we mean that source nodes are connected to their target nodes through an arrow, since direction is important to identify source from target nodes. For the purposes of this blog, we restricted the network graph to contain datasets within TCdata360 only; thus, all data sources and targets external to TCdata360 will not be included in our analysis.

Here's how the network graph looks like.

Each dataset is represented by a circle (aka "node") and is grouped and color-coded by data owner or institution. The direction from any source to target node is clearer in the interactive version, wherein there's a small arrow on the connecting line which shows the direction from target to source.